Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x849e0793490d20565767e3c400459744b2516841be174a453573473dccdb7103
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,938 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 7,853$3,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,167.67 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 60c | 6,173$3,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460.95 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 3,717$2,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.74 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 28c | 1,000$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.54 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 38c | 900.06$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 27c | 760.76$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.36 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 694.64$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.59 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…3b62backed Yes | 26c | 363.54$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 51c | 352.5$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.68 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes | 26c | 331$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 73c | 271.91$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.35 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 73c | 242.67$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 26c | 232.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 27c | 226.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 29c | 206.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 73c | 189.74$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Yes | 28c | 168.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 21c | 153$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Yes | 27c | 145.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked No | 53c | 140$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 26c | 135.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…b386backed No | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076e…a6a4backed Yes | 66c | 114.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 27c | 98.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…8cc1backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 26c | 80.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 42c | 73.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 26c | 71.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 24c | 58.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 76c | 55.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 68c | 52.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Yes | 49c | 51.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…dc56backed Yes | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…d445backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 55c | 44.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 47c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 31c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 75c | 16.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ACF Fiorentina vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa end in a draw?this page
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-12?Yes won
- Will RKS Raków Częstochowa win on 2026-03-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.