Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Groningen vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84aa6c5b2fa5f529b4e30af40f55c06f7a39cc96165892e228cc11687bcf2b1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,926 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf975…4354backed Yes | 26c | 8,818$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.96 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 67c | 3,619$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.6 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 2,389$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.07 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 73c | 2,280$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.6 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 2,264$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.67 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 108 | 25%27 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 1,278$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…cd41backed No | 74c | 1,141$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 22c | 987.41$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.02 | 135 | 28.9%39 W · 96 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 6c | 828.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 74c | 786.08$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.52 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 465.24$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.31 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked No | 68c | 313$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…f726backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 7c | 258.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…55acbacked Yes | 38c | 216.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…6af2backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 161$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7657backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…ab47backed Yes | 26c | 119.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b7…de43backed Yes | 27c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Yes | 27c | 97.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 77 | 75.3%58 W · 19 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c4…f978backed Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 408 | 50.7%207 W · 201 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 27c | 54.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked Yes | 22c | 50.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 27c | 43.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 68c | 42.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 35c | 32.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 31.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 74c | 29.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 75c | 27.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 188 | 48.4%91 W · 97 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 66c | 20.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 184 | 50.5%93 W · 91 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 68c | 18.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Groningen vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-03-07?No won
- Will FC Groningen win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.