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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,266
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,266 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf86c…7e9abacked Yes79c763.45$601 inWon+$162.25966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+58.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes41c246.59$100 inWon+$146.5970645.8%323 W · 383 L+16.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No7c146.88$10 inLost-$10.312,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No70c141.94$99 inLost-$99.362,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes37c141.49$52 inWon+$89.1418947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No59c135.19$80 inLost-$79.8681124.8%201 W · 610 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c132.7$80 inLost-$79.79,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c124.4$37 inWon+$87.0810,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No43c111.76$48 inLost-$47.9152347.6%249 W · 274 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c108.59$65 inLost-$65.416,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c101.16$57 inLost-$57.3812,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes34c99.99$34 inWon+$65.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+105.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes47c87.82$41 inWon+$46.391,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No63c81.37$51 inLost-$51.114,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd296…9963backed Yes42c80.61$34 inWon+$46.95139.2%20 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes39c80$31 inWon+$48.858850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No60c63.94$38 inLost-$38.3688048%422 W · 458 L+41.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No64c60.41$39 inLost-$38.661,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No59c55.41$33 inLost-$32.6927944.4%124 W · 155 L-14.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78e5…965abacked Yes45c54.39$25 inWon+$29.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes40c52.1$21 inWon+$31.115,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes41c49.08$20 inWon+$29.0867138.9%261 W · 410 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0de…3b38backed No62c48.39$30 inLost-$3013872.5%100 W · 38 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No44c42.97$19 inLost-$18.991,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed No64c40$26 inLost-$25.613351.9%69 W · 64 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes37c32.37$12 inWon+$20.4237027.8%103 W · 267 L-0.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes41c30$12 inWon+$17.851,18457.4%680 W · 504 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.99$16 inLost-$16.22,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No61c29.38$18 inLost-$18.0257559.7%343 W · 232 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No60c29.05$17 inLost-$17.4316958.6%99 W · 70 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No60c26.3$16 inLost-$15.781,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes40c25$10 inWon+$1512938.8%50 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa600…19c4backed No62c24$15 inLost-$14.881442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-37.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c3…92fcbacked No55c23.52$13 inLost-$12.8821352.6%112 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No57c23.46$13 inLost-$13.395,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked No61c23.4$14 inLost-$14.1955942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No65c21.42$14 inLost-$13.9210,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked No58c20$12 inLost-$11.617058.8%100 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.