Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2026-02-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84b326aba8b3801159dd1f0ecf8b90278f461d9e54bfd054d512d192aa4826a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 8,189$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.9 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 16c | 3,050$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585c…f0a7backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 4c | 2,917$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,243$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.6 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe507…1258backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Yes | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 15c | 1,300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b40…b77abacked Yes | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,090$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 19c | 820.52$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…fc0cbacked Yes | 16c | 759$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes | 14c | 720$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 14c | 590$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 12c | 574.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 19c | 526.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 15c | 463$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 14c | 234.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 13c | 185.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…de5abacked Yes | 18c | 167.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 13c | 161.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 17c | 143.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 14c | 137.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 13c | 135.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 72c | 116.11$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 113.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…9510backed Yes | 14c | 99.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…0139backed No | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…3223backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 17c | 86.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 142 | 47.9%68 W · 74 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 21c | 64.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…409ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…59f0backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 21c | 55.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Yes | 26c | 55.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 19c | 52.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed No | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…6583backed No | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 80c | 41.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…ad99backed No | 62c | 38.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…16d6backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…a4d3backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…6575backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 75cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-02-06?this page
- Will FC Metz vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.