NHL · resolved market
SHL: Vaexjoe vs. Brynaes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84bd71fd36e5b9e258313c2bc5fe9a1b5aa9921f4ebf15099ee680ff6b215ed0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brynaesof Vaexjoe, Brynaes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Brynaes | 47c | 118$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Brynaes | 46c | 98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Brynaes | 46c | 97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…c00cbacked Vaexjoe | 54c | 93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Vaexjoe | 59c | 85.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb28d…5af8backed Brynaes | 42c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ed…86ddbacked Brynaes | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Vaexjoe | 54c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Vaexjoe | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Vaexjoe | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…85c8backed Brynaes | 47c | 34.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Vaexjoe | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0510…4010backed Brynaes | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Vaexjoe | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…44c4backed Brynaes | 47c | 26.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…4e55backed Brynaes | 47c | 26.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Vaexjoe | 52c | 26.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Brynaes | 39c | 26.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…65aabacked Brynaes | 47c | 25.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c05…cc33backed Brynaes | 47c | 22.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.