Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Idaho Vandals vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x850be4ce01154e9eba77811a8bbbb3b47ee45058ea6a0a916d685ce716a5d0c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Idaho Vandalsof Idaho Vandals, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 31c | 1,299$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.69 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 16c | 770.55$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Idaho Vandals | 69c | 660$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.8 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Idaho Vandals | 69c | 435.07$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.07 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Idaho Vandals | 70c | 275.21$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Idaho Vandals | 66c | 226.15$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 369 | 42.3%156 W · 213 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Idaho Vandals | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 397 | 42.8%170 W · 227 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e39…0286backed Idaho Vandals | 74c | 89.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 225 | 52.9%119 W · 106 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Idaho Vandals | 77c | 71.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 32c | 53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Idaho Vandals | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 449 | 55.2%248 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Idaho Vandals | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…7a77backed Idaho Vandals | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 523 | 53.5%280 W · 243 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Idaho Vandals | 74c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Idaho Vandals | 66c | 25.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Idaho Vandals | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…5302backed Idaho Vandals | 69c | 23.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Idaho Vandals | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Idaho Vandals | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Idaho Vandals | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.