Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International: Sorana Cirstea vs Jelena Ostapenko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85159839c73d349f8efe4eefa925e110736426edd948cb7641ce2fc4df9af488
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cirsteaof Cirstea, Ostapenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ostapenko | 11c | 2,133$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.87 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…4e12backed Ostapenko | 31c | 1,421$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Ostapenko | 12c | 1,168$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877a…9913backed Cirstea | 69c | 1,070$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Ostapenko | 11c | 1,058$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 269 | 21.2%57 W · 212 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Ostapenko | 12c | 1,028$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.26 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Ostapenko | 11c | 1,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 107 | 29%31 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Ostapenko | 26c | 718.68$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.21 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Ostapenko | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 287 | 26.8%77 W · 210 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Ostapenko | 14c | 665.43$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Ostapenko | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ostapenko | 32c | 536.75$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.76 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Ostapenko | 32c | 527$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.64 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Ostapenko | 9c | 511.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Ostapenko | 35c | 432.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Ostapenko | 39c | 420.83$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.55 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Cirstea | 68c | 410$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cirstea | 66c | 363.03$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9219…85cebacked Cirstea | 69c | 351$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…83b2backed Ostapenko | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +158.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Cirstea | 79c | 300$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ostapenko | 23c | 269$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cirstea | 71c | 231.16$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Cirstea | 67c | 196.29$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Ostapenko | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Ostapenko | 33c | 158$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Cirstea | 58c | 150.83$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Cirstea | 66c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cirstea | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Ostapenko | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Ostapenko | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ostapenko | 21c | 83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Cirstea | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Cirstea | 76c | 68.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Cirstea | 80c | 67.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Cirstea | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Cirstea | 70c | 47.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…ceeabacked Cirstea | 68c | 44.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Cirstea | 68c | 25.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 222 | 58.1%129 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.