La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x853b864a644832e3e6267b353b2ed03a187330b1fedc18e1c35489a7be1aa2f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 12c | 790.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 378 | 29.4%111 W · 267 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 34c | 737.65$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.83 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783f…8f90backed Yes | 6c | 729.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 684.93$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.7 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 38c | 633.42$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.7 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked No | 62c | 618.38$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.98 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 38c | 563.14$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.99 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 6c | 364.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 585 | 48%281 W · 304 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 3c | 354.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 37c | 349.08$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.66 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 37c | 314.52$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.37 | 2,347 | 48.5%1,138 W · 1,209 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 37c | 264.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 1,045 | 47.8%500 W · 545 L | +15.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…cb1abacked Yes | 37c | 257.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf103…c4d6backed Yes | 12c | 163.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 36c | 121.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 64c | 112.72$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 112 | 66.1%74 W · 38 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 37c | 106.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d0…5444backed Yes | 39c | 96.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 67c | 95.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Yes | 37c | 86.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Yes | 37c | 77.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2a…4e1fbacked Yes | 38c | 73.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 60.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 635 | 53.1%337 W · 298 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Yes | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 270 | 55.2%149 W · 121 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Yes | 37c | 48.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Yes | 36c | 47.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 61c | 45.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Yes | 37c | 42.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 187 | 47.1%88 W · 99 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked No | 66c | 31.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 63c | 17.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 69 | 82.6%57 W · 12 L | +15.0wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +37%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 66c | 17.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 224 | 55.8%125 W · 99 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked No | 66c | 17.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 66c | 17.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 66c | 17.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 234 | 56.4%132 W · 102 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 66c | 17.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 66c | 17.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 178 | 56.7%101 W · 77 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 73c | 16.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 849 | 39.7%337 W · 512 L | -21.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 63c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 63c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…37e6backed No | 63c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa vs. Real Valladolid CF end in a draw?No won
- Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.