MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x855caea397338e9e5ed248988a1c0bd56849a0359ffb15c123ebdafa07b4df7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 78c | 8,665$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,864.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 6c | 2,369$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…3fb8backed Under | 7c | 1,663$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 1,441$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,276$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…0fcabacked Under | 7c | 918.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 7c | 899.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 49c | 480.17$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.77 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.96 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 394.44$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.66 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 301$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.53 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 39c | 219$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.59 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd344…e41bbacked Over | 63c | 158.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 45c | 138.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Under | 10c | 121.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 34c | 108.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 72.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 47c | 62.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 53c | 62.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 78c | 58.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 38.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Over | 71c | 38.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 122 | 65.6%80 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 34.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 64c | 32.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 60c | 28.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…e1f9backed Under | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 20.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.