MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1b974e8915803de8fc22a691591b179c6ac211c87ba03565c4838eacd7d3aa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 54c | 8,975$4,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,141.26 | 552 | 53.1%293 W · 259 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…98dcbacked Over | 44c | 5,460$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 3,833$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.36 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.97 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Over | 46c | 2,777$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.42 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 55c | 1,978$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.31 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 58c | 1,505$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.27 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 33c | 1,438$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.41 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Over | 46c | 1,250$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 898.96$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.08 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 55c | 832.76$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.74 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 34c | 800$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 45c | 747.25$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.26 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 46c | 616.65$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.31 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 593$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.31 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0e…c7d1backed Under | 55c | 530.17$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 43c | 529.35$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.42 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 55c | 332.8$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.04 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 43c | 301$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.42 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 67c | 291.54$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 260.71$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.88 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 255.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 24c | 214$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked Over | 17c | 149.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 55c | 133.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 122.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 55c | 115.56$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 105.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 55c | 92.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…6b99backed Over | 30c | 90.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 45c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 45c | 89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 45c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 55c | 84.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 55c | 83.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Under | 55c | 81.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c0…5dd2backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 43c | 40.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 44c | 38.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 75c | 36.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 77c | 33.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Under | 55c | 31.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 45c | 31.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 55c | 30.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 72c | 25.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 45c | 22.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…b73dbacked Under | 55c | 20.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…9b93backed Under | 55c | 19.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.