TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,786
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,186

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,786 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c18…2f76backed Baltimore Orioles16c37,843$6,009 inWon+$31,834.4657346.9%269 W · 304 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Detroit Tigers7c18,138$1,288 inLost-$1,287.5648150.7%244 W · 237 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Baltimore Orioles38c7,930$3,000 inWon+$4,929.7824344.4%108 W · 135 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Detroit Tigers74c4,035$2,983 inLost-$2,982.732,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e3…e736backed Detroit Tigers62c3,000$1,860 inLost-$1,8604742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e88…9b64backed Detroit Tigers6c2,399$153 inLost-$152.932119%4 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick9cpaid+97.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Detroit Tigers63c2,010$1,266 inLost-$1,266.373748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Detroit Tigers63c1,775$1,118 inLost-$1,118.2877951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd19…3fb8backed Detroit Tigers7c1,216$85 inLost-$85.133013.3%4 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+88.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Detroit Tigers63c1,000$630 inLost-$6301,84550.7%936 W · 909 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Detroit Tigers7c1,000$70 inLost-$7010215.7%16 W · 86 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafc4…daa1backed Detroit Tigers7c900$63 inLost-$633511.4%4 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+93.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5124…d922backed Detroit Tigers7c900$63 inLost-$634818.8%9 W · 39 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick7cpaid+162.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd3a…ccbebacked Detroit Tigers11c817.83$86 inLost-$86.062420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20a3…0fcabacked Detroit Tigers7c800$56 inLost-$561315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Detroit Tigers63c500$315 inLost-$31555052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Detroit Tigers78c452.8$353 inLost-$353.3343954.7%240 W · 199 L+30.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Detroit Tigers63c212$134 inLost-$133.562,32949.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb64f…c3a9backed Detroit Tigers69c200$138 inLost-$13816253.1%86 W · 76 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Detroit Tigers45c193.78$87 inLost-$87.397444.6%33 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1f4b…556bbacked Detroit Tigers10c120$12 inLost-$12639.5%6 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Detroit Tigers31c100$31 inLost-$3135341.1%145 W · 208 L-16.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Detroit Tigers63c93.41$59 inLost-$58.852,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Detroit Tigers63c63$40 inLost-$39.691,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Detroit Tigers63c50$32 inLost-$31.51,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles35c50$18 inWon+$32.51,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles36c40.3$15 inWon+$25.671,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df1…6b99backed Baltimore Orioles35c34.97$12 inWon+$22.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8c…e77dbacked Baltimore Orioles80c30$24 inWon+$66377.8%49 W · 14 L+10.0wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+93.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5f25…4952backed Detroit Tigers67c29.85$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Detroit Tigers63c25.16$16 inLost-$15.851,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Detroit Tigers60c20$12 inLost-$1248653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Detroit Tigers61c20$12 inLost-$12.21,82854.1%989 W · 839 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.