Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8571597013046477495fe6fb5c9d9bfb97791ce9310d8dae5f79cdb0676faf33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 0c | 34,787$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 513.99$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 57c | 350.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 335.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 77c | 331.12$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 271.58$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 247.97$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 30c | 213.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 207.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 206.16$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.51 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 21c | 168.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 75c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 40c | 106.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 27c | 103$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 102.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed No | 16c | 77.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 28c | 77.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 34c | 76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 25c | 71.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 67c | 69.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 42c | 68.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 65c | 67.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 21c | 67.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 66.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 43c | 66.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 36c | 65.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 61.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 72c | 59.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 59.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 79c | 57.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 58c | 53.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…5799backed Yes | 26c | 51.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 61c | 49.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 42c | 49.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 48.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed Yes | 26c | 47.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 63c | 42.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 33c | 41.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 46c | 30.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 53c | 25.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed No | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 25.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 77c | 25.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 76c | 24.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 79c | 22.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 73c | 19.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…689bbacked Yes | 57c | 18.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 78c | 18.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.