Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5c846a17a0a9fa8ac25a791a0152fcecd4f036a000efca36a8be1a93770c517
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 0c | 75,317$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.07 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 4c | 532.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 354.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 44c | 207.57$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 189.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 5c | 188.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 174.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 50c | 162.24$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 14c | 148.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 79c | 131.71$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 80c | 128.93$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 128.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 53c | 127.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 123.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 40c | 107.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 49c | 97.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…6bcbbacked No | 62c | 61.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 61.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 39c | 61.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 37c | 60.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 52c | 51.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…2d98backed Yes | 39c | 47.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 45.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 65c | 44.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 47c | 44.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 34c | 40.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 61c | 39.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 62c | 39.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddf…4459backed No | 49c | 37.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 43c | 36.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 36.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 42c | 35.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 31.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 46c | 31.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…5799backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked No | 70c | 28.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 38c | 26.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 53c | 24.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 43c | 24.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 58c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 59c | 20.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.