South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8577478e445fcb8ae47688cb961352eb1a13e36b2b7b9475b3bcf7f4c53f6f86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,091 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 27c | 3,764$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 3,430$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.49 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 36c | 989.05$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.05 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 918.38$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.61 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Under | 58c | 896.47$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.52 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 39c | 461.54$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 30c | 336.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 38c | 315.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 68c | 240.21$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 44c | 227.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Under | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 42c | 187$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 180.95$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 42c | 163.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 45c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 56c | 84.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 23c | 74.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…4d2abacked Under | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 36c | 58.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 56c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f9…2e72backed Under | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 64c | 41.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Over | 48c | 39.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 56c | 39.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Under | 78c | 35.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 44c | 30.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 61c | 26.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Under | 56c | 26.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 58c | 23.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…3c70backed Under | 59c | 19.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 66c | 18.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Under | 73c | 14.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b9…20a7backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.