South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfce6f25baa1a97374c223b89918e97311a2fa18eee5dc716cec979f07885efc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,000 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 45c | 1,505$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.81 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…84c1backed No | 35c | 519.49$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 49c | 448.29$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.26 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 52c | 394.75$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.27 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 47c | 313.05$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.97 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 50c | 306.02$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.97 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 45c | 166.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.62 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x333b…c557backed Yes | 52c | 149.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 57c | 126.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…479dbacked Yes | 52c | 95.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…caa0backed Yes | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed No | 57c | 83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 47c | 79.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Yes | 39c | 63.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 48c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 48c | 54.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc735…b72abacked Yes | 57c | 52.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6f…e57cbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 47c | 47.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…bd64backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…6ae4backed Yes | 54c | 36.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43bd…feacbacked Yes | 44c | 27.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Yes | 68c | 23.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.