South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x294b4c524f0718375ee3671d5995ade7f4a98cf9902ec77148406df617f620e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,971 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 52c | 1,900$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.36 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 1,350$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.44 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 22c | 1,232$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.63 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Over | 73c | 1,036$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 51c | 498.9$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.44 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 31c | 266.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.29 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 53c | 135.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 26c | 118.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…1d41backed Over | 62c | 116.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 69c | 115.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 107.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…922bbacked Over | 58c | 85.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 81.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 71c | 57.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 64c | 47.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Under | 42c | 43.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…dde4backed Over | 58c | 36.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…0488backed Under | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 72c | 29.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 49c | 22.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…7c9abacked Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bca…24aebacked Over | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 69c | 14.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.