Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Lausanne-Sport vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8582a22ff28a95c7768fb2324b4df7159eb018512a5f47c82c675cfbd0d77caf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 49c | 1,820$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.97 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 1,522$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.32 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 49c | 1,388$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.88 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 2c | 992.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 912.35$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.6 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 49c | 513.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.96 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 468.31$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.71 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 52c | 441$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.32 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 330.77$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 320.33$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.75 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Over | 49c | 241$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.91 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 51c | 236.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.07 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…d60ebacked Over | 49c | 204.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…8fd8backed Over | 49c | 203.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Over | 49c | 180$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Under | 14c | 168.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 52c | 166.67$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 51c | 143.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 48c | 103.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 51c | 101$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508b…2797backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 52c | 83.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…b778backed Over | 49c | 61.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…5f02backed Under | 42c | 49.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 59c | 46.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…d5a7backed Over | 49c | 42.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…5802backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Over | 46c | 32.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcb…4381backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…aeaabacked Over | 51c | 29.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 51c | 27.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 59c | 23.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Under | 53c | 22.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +64%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lausanne-Sport vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Lausanne-Sport vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lausanne-Sport vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lausanne-Sport vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Lausanne-Sport vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SK Sigma Olomouc (-1.5)FC Lausanne-Sport won
- Spread: SK Sigma Olomouc (-2.5)FC Lausanne-Sport won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.