Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85914a73899c047f0d8522d6ec1c16e135a034d1d3dfb35772b18c9ab057ee03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 643.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 235.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 208.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked Yes | 7c | 190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6c…744ebacked Yes | 30c | 182.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 170.28$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 19c | 154.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…d983backed Yes | 25c | 125.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…3881backed Yes | 20c | 118$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 98.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 90.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 14c | 87.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 28c | 86.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 15c | 81.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 81.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049f…c09ebacked Yes | 22c | 76.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…78a9backed Yes | 21c | 72.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…b4a2backed Yes | 25c | 71.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f5…029bbacked Yes | 22c | 66.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x049e…55b1backed Yes | 24c | 63.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…b414backed Yes | 23c | 60.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21cc…2939backed Yes | 28c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 39.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 31c | 38.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 76c | 37.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…2fcfbacked No | 76c | 28.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 79c | 28.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…6f60backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…a8f1backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 78cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 39°F or below on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on February 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.