Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd68695ce032aaf2ab5feb37c3b61bee139506c9663a1c408e9ab5eb722848cde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 6c | 416.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 406.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 44c | 212.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 23c | 182.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 160.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 66c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 145$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 141.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 39c | 133.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 34c | 131.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed Yes | 24c | 114.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa20f…fcaabacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 64c | 98.79$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 60c | 95.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 17c | 86.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed Yes | 40c | 85.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…b4a2backed Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 66c | 74.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 70.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3957…1608backed Yes | 36c | 69.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec04…d8b2backed No | 61c | 66.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc5…af1cbacked Yes | 33c | 58.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 76 | 9.2%7 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 75c | 56.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…f014backed No | 75c | 53.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x104c…050cbacked Yes | 31c | 52.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1d…503fbacked Yes | 33c | 50.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 68c | 49.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 27c | 47.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 64c | 46.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 45.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…4161backed Yes | 33c | 42.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 53c | 38.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…5d4ebacked No | 70c | 34.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 60c | 33.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed No | 70c | 26.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 40c | 26.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 26.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 76c | 25.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…2f76backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…35c1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…d8edbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…b4f1backed No | 68c | 17.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 39°F or below on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on February 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.