Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfef6f79d5f83ae7be7f0083c5df378ed20cfff9910c785310196b898266e8751
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 374.62$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.93 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 23c | 305.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 251$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 242.74$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 31c | 214.87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 196$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.56 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 28c | 171.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.1 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 77c | 147$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 68c | 126.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 121.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.71 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes | 25c | 120.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 117$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 21c | 113.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 97.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 62c | 80.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 79.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…e42dbacked No | 76c | 76.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x049e…55b1backed Yes | 22c | 69.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 64.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 64c | 60.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 58.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdb…75dbbacked Yes | 40c | 56.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 46c | 54.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked Yes | 28c | 51.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…a226backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 72c | 49.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 76c | 49.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 80c | 46.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd64c…2c13backed No | 66c | 40.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…5f81backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 74c | 35.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 35c | 29.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 71c | 27.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 62c | 27.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 43c | 23.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 76c | 20.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…4a60backed No | 74c | 19.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 39°F or below on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.