Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85ab67b47f82cc445b9cd23313d04e462bff05be4dbcca50eec1bd2932cd83f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 4,403$2,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.81 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 48c | 2,649$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.6 | 518 | 42.1%218 W · 300 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 21c | 1,710$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.13 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 16c | 1,461$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.15 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 30c | 876.55$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.65 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 737.86$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.6 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Yes | 28c | 535.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 73c | 382.75$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.34 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 47c | 213.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…ca7dbacked Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 66c | 163.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 76c | 131.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Yes | 45c | 117$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 45c | 102$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 80c | 81.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 71c | 75.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 69c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…96bfbacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 59c | 54.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 50.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 48.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 323 | 50.2%162 W · 161 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…03e5backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +150%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 56c | 36.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked No | 55c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Tondela win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.