Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc067eebc3c8fe0fb4f3f46d79754b3dba573a6e4eb806779501c520f4e65f19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 45c | 15,000$6,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,738.08 | 362 | 43.1%156 W · 206 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 3,997$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.34 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 56c | 3,826$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.11 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 55c | 3,285$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.56 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 59c | 3,063$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.16 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 43c | 1,715$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.53 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 55c | 1,400$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Yes | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.12 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked No | 55c | 1,224$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.67 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 54c | 1,184$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.63 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 132 | 65.2%86 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e4…6f6bbacked Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 56c | 739.49$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.48 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 71c | 646.97$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.53 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 72c | 605.29$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.93 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 56c | 593.58$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.18 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 56c | 544.21$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.77 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 63c | 403$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.54 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 40c | 324.78$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed No | 55c | 320$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…7198backed Yes | 18c | 315.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 55c | 312$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 55c | 311.04$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.97 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 56c | 280$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 55c | 275.62$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.48 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 55c | 204.2$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 55c | 195.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 28c | 184.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…2c4abacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 58c | 173.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed Yes | 43c | 167.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 55c | 147.22$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…ef8ebacked No | 56c | 135.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…1c3fbacked No | 56c | 127$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 46cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 44c | 119.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 284 | 46.1%131 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…f0f2backed Yes | 17c | 111.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 31c | 103.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed No | 56c | 101.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 199 | 48.7%97 W · 102 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed No | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Yes | 43c | 87.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -45%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 38c | 75.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 57c | 69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Yes | 44c | 65.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Yes | 45c | 54.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 58c | 51.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -9.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…ae58backed No | 56c | 45.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b10…523bbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 62c | 40.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…af73backed No | 56c | 35.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked No | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 76c | 33.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 79 | 22.8%18 W · 61 L | -14.9wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 31.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Tondela win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.