Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb51e48ed250f3e6d8f3903222aa9602ed29c986a2bb8530e43e4649815ef7be0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 72c | 4,689$3,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,384.54 | 518 | 42.1%218 W · 300 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 30c | 3,150$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205 | 126 | 13.5%17 W · 109 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 3,131$2,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,176.67 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 32c | 1,306$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.69 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 30c | 1,098$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.46 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 55c | 892.63$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.24 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes | 61c | 816.39$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.39 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 45c | 693.84$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.03 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 70c | 682.63$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.65 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 39c | 662.22$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.39 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…e9dcbacked Yes | 31c | 646$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 56c | 634.57$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.73 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 6c | 466.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 35c | 426.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.17 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 417.37$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.55 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe488…f2c0backed Yes | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked No | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 31c | 360.69$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.88 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 61c | 343.58$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.25 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a3f4backed Yes | 74c | 310.59$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 71c | 302.11$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.09 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 132 | 65.2%86 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 72c | 193.28$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 14c | 186.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…96bfbacked Yes | 74c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 73c | 143.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 68.8%99 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8b03backed No | 73c | 137$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 284 | 46.1%131 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7477…a7a8backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…1184backed Yes | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 57c | 76.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…dac8backed No | 75c | 76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 49c | 70.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 35c | 66.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 69c | 61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed No | 38c | 52.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 50.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc251…a5d3backed No | 70c | 48.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 60c | 44.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 79 | 22.8%18 W · 61 L | -14.9wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…4b19backed Yes | 74c | 43.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2b…769cbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ec…fd3fbacked Yes | 72c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 71c | 24.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 273 | 52.7%144 W · 129 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 71c | 20.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 199 | 48.7%97 W · 102 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Yes | 61c | 20.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 59c | 18.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…a9abbacked Yes | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will CD Tondela win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.