MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85cbcc46a59adbd6f8c62e4a86815eb627635a82601d66b16b84325c706457fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 53c | 113,207$59,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,979.28 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 84,998$40,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,927.61 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 11,925$5,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,295.08 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 8,722$4,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,622.66 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 4,104$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.99 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 48c | 3,335$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.19 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…5f55backed Over | 52c | 2,960$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.2 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 2,685$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.01 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 2,500$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 67c | 2,282$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.09 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 2,192$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.47 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked Over | 52c | 1,480$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.77 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 47c | 1,365$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.45 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 66c | 1,158$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.82 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 1,052$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.74 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 772.33$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.33 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 68c | 505.46$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.45 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 56c | 392.95$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 481 | 45.3%218 W · 263 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 49c | 382$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.64 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Over | 52c | 374.88$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.94 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 48c | 269.33$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.05 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 69c | 219.65$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 67c | 216.02$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 178.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 48c | 174$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed Over | 51c | 149.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 121.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 33c | 119.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 113.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 52c | 113.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 35c | 103.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 383 | 42%161 W · 222 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 52c | 96.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Over | 45c | 96.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 54c | 89.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Under | 50c | 88.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 81.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 51c | 78.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Over | 52c | 71.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 53c | 65.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 54c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…a334backed Under | 51c | 39.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +7.5wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…430ebacked Under | 59c | 33.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 49c | 33.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 49c | 32.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…5c16backed Under | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 49c | 28.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Under | 49c | 26.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Under | 51c | 25.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Under | 51c | 25.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Over | 51c | 24.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed Over | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 64c | 15.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.