MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x898f72172f48f9b916ff627ea02072862d28002b02490d2aabcecbf437fb6f9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48e3…03ccbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 3,645$2,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,066.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 1,351$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.69 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 1,210$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.4 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 967.5$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.6 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.47 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 545.9$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.28 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 382.27$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 369.4$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.82 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 354.16$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.58 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770f…ac44backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 283.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 240.27$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 232.82$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 200.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 146.03$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 108$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 93.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 60.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Tampa Bay Rays | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 59.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 58.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 58.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…74d2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 55.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 47.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 39.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7160…cce2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 30.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 30.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 27.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 25.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 25.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…4413backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.