South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85d096fce8d3ac6d02289c97a80afea24a2bc2f75a9a7a1ffe700e5e082a8791
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Club Bloomingof Red Bull Bragantino, Club Blooming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Club Blooming | 61c | 2,704$1,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.77 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Red Bull Bragantino | 38c | 2,704$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.33 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Red Bull Bragantino | 56c | 360$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 50c | 310.64$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.64 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Club Blooming | 50c | 291$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Red Bull Bragantino | 36c | 169.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Club Blooming | 44c | 169.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Red Bull Bragantino | 31c | 155.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Club Blooming | 44c | 98.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7584…03d1backed Red Bull Bragantino | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Red Bull Bragantino | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Club Blooming | 53c | 64.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Club Blooming | 41c | 56.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Club Blooming | 44c | 45.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 47c | 37.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Club Blooming | 76c | 30.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Club Blooming | 61c | 20.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)this page
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Club Blooming: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Club Blooming: O/U 1.5Over won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Club Blooming: O/U 2.5Over won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Club Blooming: O/U 3.5Over won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Club Blooming: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-2.5)Club Blooming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.