Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8609bf40acc7878d524249067674d848cac0d74f5ddf23ae7b402f082572d443
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 5c | 1,030$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 764.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 11c | 656$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…6090backed Yes | 2c | 599.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 7c | 451.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 325.15$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…843dbacked Yes | 5c | 321.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 251.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 9c | 166.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…4ef4backed Yes | 20c | 125.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 76c | 117.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 90.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad6b…f50dbacked Yes | 33c | 78.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 19c | 74.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 76c | 58.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 634 | 24.1%153 W · 481 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 18c | 57.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 353 | 69.4%245 W · 108 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 50.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 80c | 49.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 48.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 37c | 46.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 25c | 46.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 44.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 80c | 39.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 390 | 61.5%240 W · 150 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 49c | 35.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 258 | 42.2%109 W · 149 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 68c | 31.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 966 | 51.3%496 W · 470 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 36c | 27.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 77c | 26.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 76c | 26.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 915 | 34.3%314 W · 601 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 67c | 23.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 67c | 20.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e6…6a03backed No | 56c | 19.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 17.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 506 | 60.9%308 W · 198 L | -18.1wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…fa27backed No | 74c | 17.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 1,321 | 75.9%1,003 W · 318 L | +18.6wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.