Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x844629fef751694cbeb75abc9a706dd6a14a519da6994d0d72e5129a7d2b6125
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 490.24$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked No | 72c | 414.29$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.99 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 401.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 362.92$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.51 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 324.35$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 301$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.51 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 50c | 299.96$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.82 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 21c | 259.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 38c | 215.83$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 64c | 211.23$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 12c | 195.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 51c | 195.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.05 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 32c | 176.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 155$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.88 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 42c | 139.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 61c | 135.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 124.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 124.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked No | 41c | 123.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 33c | 110.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 16c | 100.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.58 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 98.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…08bfbacked Yes | 52c | 96.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 96.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 91.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 85.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 82.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 79.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 76.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 63c | 71.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fb…0bd6backed No | 19c | 68.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 17c | 67.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 64.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 58.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 55c | 55.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 42c | 54.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 77c | 51.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 60c | 51.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 39c | 50.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbec…5088backed No | 33c | 50.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 38c | 48.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 49c | 46.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14f2…0ce1backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 66c | 42.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 76c | 39.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 78c | 38.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed No | 30c | 37.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 37.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 44c | 33.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 32c | 33.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…ff1bbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 68c | 29.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 60c | 24.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 69c | 22.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 63c | 20.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 18.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 15.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…63ffbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.