F1 · resolved market
Will Red Bull finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8611227be672925d589b43d491fb20c8c2b28b502191da0b4c0131e643517b21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 3c | 438.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 48c | 372.75$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 47c | 144.71$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…e595backed Yes | 73c | 78.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 52c | 76.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…4b8bbacked No | 27c | 48.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 51c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…105fbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…0b31backed Yes | 70c | 27.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Red Bull finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship?this page
- Will Aston Martin finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship?No won
- Will Ferrari finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship?Yes won
- Will Racing Bulls finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.