Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x861967a7409dd7e4d1cbc65191da859bdc95133cc79948c293b023e9917d0b0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6f5…f3b5backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 5,249$3,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,155.21 | 183 | 51.9%95 W · 88 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…9a17backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 4,077$2,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,370.94 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…4742backed Team Falcons | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…285dbacked Team Falcons | 42c | 4,000$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,322.42 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Team Falcons | 39c | 1,080$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.78 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Team Falcons | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.99 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 430.11$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.41 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Tundra Esports | 61c | 399.98$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.99 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 315.16$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.36 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…6269backed Team Falcons | 43c | 280.17$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 279.61$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.98 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8be…3d54backed Team Falcons | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Team Falcons | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Team Falcons | 41c | 240$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.65 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Team Falcons | 40c | 235.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.2 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Team Falcons | 39c | 207.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.98 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 207.82$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.77 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…df39backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 164.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 169 | 63.3%107 W · 62 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 164.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 161.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Team Falcons | 44c | 127.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Team Falcons | 37c | 119.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed Team Falcons | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed Team Falcons | 40c | 101.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Team Falcons | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Team Falcons | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 81.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Team Falcons | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Team Falcons | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Falcons | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 50.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…6057backed Team Falcons | 46c | 50.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 47.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Team Falcons | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…980abacked Team Falcons | 39c | 37.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 36.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 33.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Team Falcons | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Team Falcons | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf119…dde9backed Team Falcons | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…8ad8backed Tundra Esports | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.