TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$511,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$647,114

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $511,499 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 404 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Tundra Esports30c147,016$43,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,8001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47b3…039cbacked Team Falcons64c35,384$22,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,671.12352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182b…f3d3backed Team Falcons67c26,066$17,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,490.024548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Team Falcons63c18,661$11,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,81222644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Tundra Esports36c15,000$5,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,449.983647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Tundra Esports34c13,452$4,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,601.615848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6a…4119backed Team Falcons65c12,276$7,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,291.932157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+53.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2744…7e85backed Team Falcons66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4002277.3%17 W · 5 L+5.1wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+36.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons78c9,372$7,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,101.342,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf394…cdb1backed Tundra Esports23c8,416$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.343036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Team Falcons69c8,072$5,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,512.8710751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed Tundra Esports36c6,201$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.363033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Team Falcons67c5,916$3,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,952.187058.6%41 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Team Falcons65c5,430$3,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900.4516746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Team Falcons65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7505259.6%31 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Tundra Esports33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6509839.8%39 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Tundra Esports32c4,402$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.1388539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x369f…abb5backed Team Falcons66c4,262$2,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.08862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Falcons69c4,119$2,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.8242145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5df…be7cbacked Tundra Esports22c4,008$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.689428.7%27 W · 67 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Team Falcons69c3,931$2,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.5251364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Tundra Esports37c3,471$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.1241351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Team Falcons64c3,240$2,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.377357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Tundra Esports17c3,144$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.271,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked Team Falcons67c2,986$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.345964.4%38 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1501…a163backed Tundra Esports10c2,972$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002564%16 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…dd9fbacked Tundra Esports13c2,891$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.25812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-79.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Team Falcons64c2,850$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.8813346.6%62 W · 71 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Team Falcons63c2,789$1,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.931369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+39.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Team Falcons64c2,690$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.413960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports15c2,605$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.661,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…273dbacked Tundra Esports35c2,500$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87512630.2%38 W · 88 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Tundra Esports37c2,430$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.6748539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Tundra Esports31c2,300$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.9981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Team Falcons63c2,274$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.2311547%54 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Team Falcons64c2,222$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.921729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-38.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd1b…e3b3backed Team Falcons69c2,188$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.999754.6%53 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Team Falcons64c2,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72029160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Tundra Esports32c1,973$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.2951140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a0e…2330backed Tundra Esports33c1,950$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.55639.3%22 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed Team Falcons67c1,939$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.347255.6%40 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacd0…f4f0backed Team Falcons64c1,881$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.25580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Tundra Esports13c1,706$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.7589749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47f3…1a02backed Team Falcons66c1,679$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.02450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Tundra Esports32c1,613$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.9529143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Tundra Esports37c1,593$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.544654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Tundra Esports33c1,505$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4928150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Tundra Esports33c1,497$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009556.8%54 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Tundra Esports32c1,496$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.597243.1%31 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Team Falcons67c1,482$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.8559254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Tundra Esports16c1,469$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.611,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x254b…e8abbacked Team Falcons65c1,392$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.181258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7353…b476backed Team Falcons68c1,352$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.6210645.3%48 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Team Falcons67c1,339$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.8723746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Team Falcons70c1,230$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.1832951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Tundra Esports27c1,139$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.251,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Tundra Esports28c1,112$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.0820740.1%83 W · 124 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed Team Falcons65c1,100$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3852763%17 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Tundra Esports14c1,021$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5693546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe56b…2c03backed Tundra Esports34c1,012$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3449341.9%39 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e78…1a6fbacked Team Falcons64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601250%6 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Tundra Esports33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3305740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x996b…796bbacked Tundra Esports33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e7…bbf0backed Team Falcons67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Team Falcons63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37051544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5d9…9e0ebacked Team Falcons67c999.99$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Tundra Esports32c999.92$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9869835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Falcons68c967.61$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.6464149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7265…8712backed Team Falcons66c935.57$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.091560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Tundra Esports32c918.82$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.9530357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Tundra Esports33c909.09$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30034051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Tundra Esports36c908.73$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.147955.7%44 W · 35 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8dc8…fa26backed Team Falcons67c900$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18c6…9634backed Tundra Esports33c900$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Team Falcons66c865.15$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.1513442.5%57 W · 77 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52e3…3337backed Team Falcons67c860.95$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.197349.3%36 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Team Falcons64c860.59$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.815058%29 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Tundra Esports34c849.99$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28932441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Falcons64c823$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.2885851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Team Falcons67c800$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2641764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21de…506ebacked Team Falcons63c788.55$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.55520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-68.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8737…72babacked Tundra Esports35c784.17$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.465550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe53f…06d7backed Team Falcons68c773.13$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+131%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Tundra Esports33c757.58$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed Team Falcons72c750$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.521353.5%114 W · 99 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed Team Falcons67c747$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.5114562.1%90 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3304…8313backed Team Falcons67c746.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.278050%40 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Falcons71c737.91$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.221,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52e5…60babacked Team Falcons69c724.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.648959.6%53 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Team Falcons66c705.21$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.6520442.2%86 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Team Falcons78c679.98$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.7953758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Team Falcons66c670.01$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.7438142%160 W · 221 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4382…f015backed Team Falcons76c639.03$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.962653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Falcons63c633.76$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.4960646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Tundra Esports17c632$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5856548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a29…836dbacked Team Falcons67c611.22$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.74165.9%27 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Tundra Esports25c606.15$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0361449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Tundra Esports16c602.76$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4468649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Falcons72c600$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16877256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Tundra Esports32c582.91$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.5312536%45 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.