Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Arthur Cazaux vs Shintaro Mochizuki
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8623637ea9394e2606d2d966b63ee3552541ddb448c8dcabf456e709dd021464
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mochizukiof Cazaux, Mochizuki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Cazaux | 56c | 9,000$5,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,040 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mochizuki | 40c | 5,459$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,264.4 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Mochizuki | 23c | 2,710$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.24 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mochizuki | 40c | 709.63$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.15 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mochizuki | 44c | 582$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.72 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cazaux | 55c | 524.29$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.78 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Mochizuki | 35c | 325.83$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.99 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Cazaux | 76c | 309$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.84 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mochizuki | 43c | 210.23$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.91 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Cazaux | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…8166backed Cazaux | 69c | 162$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Mochizuki | 31c | 162$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.16 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cazaux | 52c | 129.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Mochizuki | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mochizuki | 23c | 97.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Cazaux | 73c | 69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Cazaux | 77c | 66.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Cazaux | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Mochizuki | 27c | 49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cazaux | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Cazaux | 77c | 31.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Mochizuki | 48c | 26.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Cazaux | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.