NHL · resolved market
KHL: Avangard Omsk vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x862d463f710b6799309398f3c3ba86d9f11e5eadc1b20e243d2d2dd60d5b9b7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avangard Omskof Avangard Omsk, Metallurg Magnitogorsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Avangard Omsk | 52c | 999.98$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.99 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 48c | 480$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 48c | 310.03$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.81 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 48c | 273$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…25d3backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 48c | 207.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 58c | 80.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…b5a5backed Avangard Omsk | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Avangard Omsk | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Avangard Omsk | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…c7febacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 48c | 45.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Avangard Omsk | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Avangard Omsk | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Avangard Omsk | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Avangard Omsk | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Avangard Omsk | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Avangard Omsk | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked Avangard Omsk | 53c | 22.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.