Serie A · resolved market
Juventus FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x863a6bfd464ac3c67ea9e0154e7c521358fedb0025b9b2802f49353bc85e1437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 3,139$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.63 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 9c | 1,839$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.81 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 12c | 1,134$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.92 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 7c | 546.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Over | 23c | 491.05$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd442…f946backed Under | 74c | 468.45$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Over | 18c | 211.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…f549backed Under | 74c | 196.88$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 18c | 132.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ee1abacked Under | 77c | 32.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Under | 69c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 79c | 24.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 141 | 59.6%84 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Under | 79c | 24.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Juventus FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5this page
- Juventus FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Juventus FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- Juventus FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Under won
- Juventus FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)Juventus FC won
- Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.