CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TNT vs ReThink - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x865b564be31b4ec4769fde677f432434436c0f1c6ed62168059f9f88800aec33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TNTof TNT, ReThink
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed ReThink | 37c | 1,830$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.55 | 2,092 | 41.6%871 W · 1,221 L | -50.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8c…f2cebacked ReThink | 42c | 1,774$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.45 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked TNT | 54c | 1,524$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.3 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…abc5backed TNT | 61c | 552$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.28 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ReThink | 8c | 533.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed ReThink | 41c | 418.88$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.83 | 496 | 46.6%231 W · 265 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda1a…3407backed TNT | 72c | 370.18$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 289 | 60.6%175 W · 114 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed TNT | 52c | 285.67$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.18 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked TNT | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 361 | 51.8%187 W · 174 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed TNT | 68c | 185.75$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed TNT | 55c | 178.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed TNT | 65c | 157.87$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 463 | 44.5%206 W · 257 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked TNT | 66c | 157.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 497 | 45.9%228 W · 269 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked TNT | 62c | 149.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed ReThink | 24c | 143.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1,305 | 26.4%345 W · 960 L | -89.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ReThink | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked TNT | 51c | 78.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 388 | 58.2%226 W · 162 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked ReThink | 34c | 78.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked ReThink | 52c | 65.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 2,798 | 37.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L | -138.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked TNT | 55c | 25.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked TNT | 58c | 25.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed TNT | 58c | 25.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed TNT | 57c | 23.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 530 | 55.5%294 W · 236 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed TNT | 53c | 20.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 960 | 49.7%477 W · 483 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: TNT vs ReThink - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: TNT vs ReThink (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 PlayoffsTNT won
- Counter-Strike: TNT vs ReThink - Map 2 WinnerTNT won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.