CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TNT vs ReThink (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ca35778d495215c307250c1c737f2792b38aaed78c5da761a98b74d85f57d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TNTof TNT, ReThink
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2924…0f31backed ReThink | 30c | 2,015$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.79 | 496 | 46.6%231 W · 265 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked TNT | 68c | 956.93$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.22 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed TNT | 75c | 851.19$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.13 | 1,649 | 46.9%774 W · 875 L | -28.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed ReThink | 31c | 668.93$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.05 | 2,092 | 41.6%871 W · 1,221 L | -50.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed ReThink | 18c | 320.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed TNT | 71c | 318.35$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked ReThink | 32c | 297.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed TNT | 66c | 294.11$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.15 | 286 | 60.1%172 W · 114 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked ReThink | 21c | 215$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked ReThink | 25c | 181.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 406 | 35.7%145 W · 261 L | -33.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked ReThink | 22c | 166.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1,087 | 31.9%347 W · 740 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed ReThink | 21c | 157.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 463 | 44.5%206 W · 257 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d5…7c98backed TNT | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed TNT | 69c | 99.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 530 | 55.5%294 W · 236 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed ReThink | 26c | 92.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked ReThink | 21c | 92.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 497 | 45.9%228 W · 269 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed TNT | 73c | 87.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 576 | 41.5%239 W · 337 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ReThink | 23c | 73.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed TNT | 76c | 49.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed TNT | 75c | 49.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 493 | 76.1%375 W · 118 L | +96.8wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…abc5backed TNT | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5f…0689backed ReThink | 30c | 38.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed TNT | 78c | 36.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed TNT | 75c | 29.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 559 | 50.3%281 W · 278 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked TNT | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 336 | 57.1%192 W · 144 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed TNT | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 297 | 52.2%155 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed TNT | 65c | 26.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 403 | 40.4%163 W · 240 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed TNT | 72c | 25.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2,474 | 24.7%611 W · 1,863 L | -316.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked TNT | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed TNT | 75c | 18.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…756cbacked TNT | 75c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked TNT | 70c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…9377backed TNT | 76c | 14.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: TNT vs ReThink (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: TNT vs ReThink - Map 1 WinnerTNT won
- Counter-Strike: TNT vs ReThink - Map 2 WinnerTNT won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.