MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8675e599e36b5d22e4277638d087f02f127355e7804079e665609bb167498490
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 6,535$2,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,557.51 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 4,601$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484.55 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 57c | 623.47$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.38 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 54c | 363$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.02 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 55c | 231.07$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.09 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…bdd5backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 54c | 153.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 54c | 138.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Over | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 59c | 81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 56c | 78.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 56c | 76.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 33c | 73.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 54c | 73.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 65.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Under | 69c | 60.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 231 | 66.7%154 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Over | 54c | 46.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Over | 54c | 46.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Over | 54c | 44.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 38c | 30.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 52c | 30.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 55c | 24.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 3.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.