Mls · resolved market
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x868173e17ed9a1d34ba5c7b0a02e045ff806812faf9960cb6a1467a02f554c1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Cincinnatiof Vancouver Whitecaps FC, FC Cincinnati
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 16c | 2,529$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.45 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 16c | 2,479$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.11 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 14c | 957.61$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 31c | 237.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked FC Cincinnati | 74c | 183.6$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…262bbacked FC Cincinnati | 70c | 143.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked FC Cincinnati | 69c | 100.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 16c | 100.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…9d93backed FC Cincinnati | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 29c | 56.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 30c | 55.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…25fbbacked FC Cincinnati | 69c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Cincinnati | 67c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed FC Cincinnati | 74c | 43.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed FC Cincinnati | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FC Cincinnati | 78c | 29.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…97cebacked Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 44c | 28.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…fac6backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 44c | 28.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed FC Cincinnati | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: FC Cincinnati O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Vancouver Whitecaps FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.