Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe435d91b391c7889b2248f28fe30af987ff0d5ed8e6f31d42167a644c28132ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 77c | 8,661$6,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975.21 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 21c | 6,334$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.98 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 12c | 3,927$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.31 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 7c | 2,133$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 69c | 1,971$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.09 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 31c | 907.84$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.05 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 31c | 600.77$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.24 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 485.92$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.35 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 33c | 448.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.59 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 17c | 418.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 70c | 356.03$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.18 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.7wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 31c | 265$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 14c | 263.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 65c | 235.43$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 70c | 125.06$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 28c | 121.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Over | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 73c | 67.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 30c | 66.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 69c | 66.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…674cbacked Over | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Under | 31c | 59.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…180bbacked Under | 29c | 50.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 27c | 44.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 68c | 39.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 70c | 36.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 73c | 27.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…6767backed Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: FC Cincinnati O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Vancouver Whitecaps FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.