CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: DNT (-1.5) vs Fortress (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8699f5510dc32575438268d6cbab3a68807a7a50fc77157182cfb53ca273d350
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fortressof Donstu Esports, Fortress
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2526…218ebacked Donstu Esports | 62c | 6,388$3,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,971.08 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Donstu Esports | 51c | 4,274$2,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,186.44 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fortress | 41c | 2,250$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.5 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fortress | 35c | 1,836$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.09 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Fortress | 38c | 744.99$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.68 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…0abfbacked Fortress | 44c | 682.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.88 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed Fortress | 42c | 411.86$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.86 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Fortress | 35c | 401$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.83 | 457 | 54.5%249 W · 208 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Fortress | 43c | 364.62$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.83 | 343 | 40.8%140 W · 203 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Fortress | 42c | 333.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.33 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Fortress | 43c | 319.02$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.35 | 562 | 39.5%222 W · 340 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Fortress | 50c | 313.14$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.28 | 489 | 39.7%194 W · 295 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Donstu Esports | 60c | 297.45$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.74 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Fortress | 40c | 285$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 392 | 45.9%180 W · 212 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Fortress | 41c | 278$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.02 | 317 | 41.3%131 W · 186 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Fortress | 41c | 229.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.14 | 836 | 43.5%364 W · 472 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Fortress | 42c | 228.03$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.13 | 1,659 | 32.7%542 W · 1,117 L | -49.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Fortress | 41c | 227.88$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.16 | 431 | 55.9%241 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…e9acbacked Fortress | 44c | 218.67$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.46 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Fortress | 41c | 150.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 408 | 57.1%233 W · 175 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed Donstu Esports | 46c | 148.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…9306backed Fortress | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Fortress | 34c | 126.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 321 | 38.6%124 W · 197 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Fortress | 41c | 125$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Fortress | 34c | 120.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 309 | 38.5%119 W · 190 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…ed78backed Fortress | 35c | 110.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Fortress | 37c | 107.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 160 | 32.5%52 W · 108 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Fortress | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Fortress | 36c | 97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 187 | 53.5%100 W · 87 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Fortress | 36c | 87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 271 | 56.8%154 W · 117 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Fortress | 42c | 73.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 368 | 56.8%209 W · 159 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…b819backed Donstu Esports | 58c | 69.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Donstu Esports | 52c | 68.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 1,895 | 47.8%906 W · 989 L | -50.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Fortress | 35c | 60.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 418 | 53.6%224 W · 194 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Fortress | 41c | 42.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Fortress | 43c | 36.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Fortress | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…5b70backed Fortress | 39c | 30.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Fortress | 36c | 28.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Fortress | 42c | 27.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 746 | 53.5%399 W · 347 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…f93dbacked Fortress | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4a…c078backed Donstu Esports | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 123 | 71.5%88 W · 35 L | +19.0wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Donstu Esports | 58c | 17.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 447 | 63.5%284 W · 163 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: DNT (-1.5) vs Fortress (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Fortress (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group CDonstu Esports won
- Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Fortress - Map 1 WinnerFortress won
- Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Fortress - Map 2 WinnerDonstu Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.