MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x869d46d5a9f2c12c6e0a42ab633f2f9ab501d915fe904131d2ce63d437c976bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 48c | 3,916$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.92 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 52c | 1,229$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.98 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Over | 54c | 984.07$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.67 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 54c | 854.76$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.17 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 44c | 619.81$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.72 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 44c | 289.92$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.56 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 138.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 53c | 127$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 112.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Under | 16c | 106$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 46c | 105.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…c3b9backed Over | 58c | 83.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Over | 54c | 81.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 46c | 25.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 19.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. Texas RangersAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.