MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86aafb02fc8450f9a8ffcf91d4c6e5d918a5a4f4a769e729eac1ca5c33b8c15c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 53c | 698.94$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.16 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 57c | 106.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 50c | 37.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…88a0backed No | 55c | 33.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 62cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…83c0backed No | 55c | 27.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 51c | 25.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 72c | 25.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…fd77backed No | 55c | 23.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Raysthis page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.