TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,429

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,853 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Under46c10,456$4,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,853.5411,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over57c9,585$5,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,140.228,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Over48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,12033554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under53c4,477$2,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,372.592853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under45c3,636$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.2210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under52c2,400$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24875248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over47c2,181$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.173,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Under44c2,085$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.371,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over56c1,918$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.254,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75068053.2%362 W · 318 L+2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Over48c898.48$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.222753.3%121 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under52c749.59$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.794,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over47c689.62$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.716,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Under53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30077353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Under54c515.85$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.771145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under50c444$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2221,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under51c420$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.22,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3a5…cd84backed Under52c391.71$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6910046%46 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over49c289.27$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.3912549.6%62 W · 63 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ad…a700backed Over58c255.07$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.12572%18 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+35.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Over53c243$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.213256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over47c225.05$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.338,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over45c223.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.516,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over47c222$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.662,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Over48c215$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.844949.2%221 W · 228 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over47c213$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.891,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Under53c202.94$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.892,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10699447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1063,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Over51c197.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.3511138.7%43 W · 68 L-11.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under69c149.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.491,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbf…c53cbacked Over54c146.11$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.514450%22 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under51c140$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8574657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under52c135.74$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.182,94447.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L+4.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under55c129.76$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.761,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under52c127.25$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.172,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd010…2ee6backed Over48c127$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.04560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Over47c121.2$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6229549.8%147 W · 148 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over47c120$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.262,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over56c119$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.22,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over48c118$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.085,12654.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L+231.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Under43c117.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023651.3%121 W · 115 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over49c116.16$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.243,45651.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L+107.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Under44c104.57$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0190446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Under52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5214549%71 W · 74 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115e…5019backed Over51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499553.7%51 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff2a…bfefbacked Over34c97.06$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0631343.5%136 W · 177 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over51c96.79$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5982551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d6…1f24backed Over49c76.14$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6431258%181 W · 131 L+15.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under48c75.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.539,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x974a…8efdbacked Over53c74.06$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.81757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over55c72.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.541,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9e1…ba1fbacked Under51c71.92$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3740%0 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under52c70$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.72,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over49c69.4$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.391,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Under53c64.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4477050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over47c61.36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.521,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7693…470fbacked Under52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021354.5%116 W · 97 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under31c56.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.285,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over52c56.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.072,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Under47c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8529250.7%148 W · 144 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Under29c54.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8444744.1%197 W · 250 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bd6…bf96backed Over48c54.17$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1713148.9%64 W · 67 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over51c53.03$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ac…427fbacked Over48c50.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.317050%35 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cff…6471backed Over47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.52653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Over54c44.76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7647646.2%220 W · 256 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Over47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.239250.3%197 W · 195 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Under51c37.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.954,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd774…fafebacked Under50c34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb130…7767backed Under53c30.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.32650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61a8…8539backed Under53c30.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.061172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb6b…6e15backed Under53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91060%6 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fbf…e37bbacked Under53c28.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.261154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb978…8799backed Under53c28.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.26728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick66cpaid-61.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x407b…bba5backed Under53c28.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.211353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e37…ac4abacked Under53c27.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.731764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-3.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb902…cacfbacked Under53c27.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.73757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb7…f54bbacked Under53c27.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.68560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe991…a082backed Under53c27.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.471163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda95…34f0backed Under53c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.311070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4886backed Under53c26.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.261050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…b2fcbacked Under53c26.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.151560%9 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c4d…a945backed Under53c26.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfe2…49d1backed Under53c26.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.94771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8be6…221cbacked Under53c26.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.89955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd6…df55backed Under53c26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.781250%6 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d69…cbc8backed Under53c25.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.621968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ca…40adbacked Under53c25.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.521747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd9d…2269backed Under41c25.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.381442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8349…abaebacked Under53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.251968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Over55c24.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.173949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59e…1f1dbacked Under53c24.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.14650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17a8…c0f8backed Under53c24.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x563d…94cabacked Under53c24.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.931070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…594cbacked Under53c24.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.831464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ee…061cbacked Under53c24.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.77475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d41…581fbacked Under53c23.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.611266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1bd…35a1backed Under53c23.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.511656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.