Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86cf12ed088c98c6d5715cad32f1add47cd8e1b11124ced691cf2b382681aaf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8735…162fbacked Yes | 23c | 4,375$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 6c | 3,419$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.09 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 79c | 1,350$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.24 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 79c | 1,252$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.36 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 24c | 1,110$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.34 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 204 | 20.1%41 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 50c | 402.66$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.33 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Yes | 19c | 214.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 24c | 182.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Yes | 17c | 175.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…8e23backed Yes | 21c | 144.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 16c | 133.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 17c | 114.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 79c | 99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf7…2d12backed Yes | 20c | 94.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Yes | 17c | 86.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 19c | 78.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…fef1backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 78c | 57.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 43.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 77c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-29?this page
- Will Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-04-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.