Asian League · resolved market
Will Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4be0e98b4aa604e13933b1f34a4ae264fb47249f77e4af4e51d7f6057949e500
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 63c | 771$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.3 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 728.61$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.02 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 54c | 584.54$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.91 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Yes | 30c | 510.77$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.54 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 23c | 356.44$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.46 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…d4eabacked Yes | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…1497backed Yes | 32c | 317.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 38c | 245.77$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.15 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 23c | 213.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.09 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 36c | 209.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…924ebacked Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 21c | 182.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 11c | 154.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…da5ebacked Yes | 80c | 125.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Yes | 39c | 82.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…bfe7backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked No | 68c | 73.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 77c | 61.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 66c | 44.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 24c | 43.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 43.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 38.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 58c | 34.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Yes | 54c | 27.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed No | 76c | 22.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-29?No won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-04-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.