Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 46°F or higher on January 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86e7d88404e8d303c1cbcedc4ccb98e3297f14ea73fad543f637a5b1ebce7b18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 7c | 937.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 7c | 203.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 61c | 187.63$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 37c | 181.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 63c | 164.28$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 74c | 149$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb4…712cbacked No | 45c | 134.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 59c | 126.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 37c | 117.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 16c | 85.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…5319backed No | 38c | 80.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…e079backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 68.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 34c | 65.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…cfd7backed Yes | 66c | 63.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9e…1217backed No | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 37c | 55.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…f705backed No | 45c | 44.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked No | 41c | 40.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 74c | 34.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 63c | 31.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 52c | 30.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c451backed No | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +485.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed Yes | 35c | 29.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…0341backed Yes | 70c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 73c | 21.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…e2debacked Yes | 66c | 18.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 46°F or higher on January 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 35°F or below on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 36-37°F on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 38-39°F on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 42-43°F on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 44-45°F on January 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.