Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or higher on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86f85b6308860e4111303158a6ececb1012441ae3e7f444b5028f90ef61740e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 1,096$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 15c | 776.07$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.32 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 568.72$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.66 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 18c | 540$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.69 | 517 | 66.9%346 W · 171 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 387.46$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.55 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 77c | 167.73$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.74 | 800 | 24.8%198 W · 602 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 167$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.05 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 131.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…902bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 38c | 87.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 233 | 34.8%81 W · 152 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 80.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…0694backed Yes | 41c | 77.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 70.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 19c | 61.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 54.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 1,406 | 30.9%435 W · 971 L | -93.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 71c | 44.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 1,595 | 78.6%1,253 W · 342 L | +41.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 317 | 82%260 W · 57 L | +32.0wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 36.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 80c | 29.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 880 | 59.4%523 W · 357 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 25.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 819 | 42.6%349 W · 470 L | +27.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 77c | 21.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,146 | 57.1%654 W · 492 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…0a37backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 16.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,397 | 79.5%1,906 W · 491 L | +101.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 15.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 13.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or higher on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.