NHL · resolved market
Utah vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x871f6ff4771bc98c24141a6288e720b3c62ef9c83cf94fc8aa197a581d8f56b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb67c…26d1backed Under | 52c | 38,375$20,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,069 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 10,290$4,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,350.58 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 46c | 8,260$3,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,429.54 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 7,310$3,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,781.11 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Under | 51c | 6,836$3,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,473.7 | 216 | 52.3%113 W · 103 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…d0a2backed Under | 51c | 4,882$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 50c | 4,565$2,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.29 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 4,464$2,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,309.25 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 51c | 3,876$1,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.14 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 49c | 3,412$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.12 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 49c | 3,333$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.83 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 50c | 2,960$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.45 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 48c | 1,296$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.98 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 48c | 1,150$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.38 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 52c | 1,025$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 1,014$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.54 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked Over | 50c | 801.36$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.36 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdce5…65d7backed Under | 52c | 378.02$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 48c | 365$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 51c | 325.49$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 50c | 106$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 49c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 260 | 59.6%155 W · 105 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…e6cdbacked Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4469…cefebacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Utah vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
- Utah vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.