Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x872f0e8e766ec7ac29aee1a4cb4011ea6415733dd1ff799b200f44953eb1961e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 33c | 430.66$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.68 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 66c | 405.97$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.52 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 272.65$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 38c | 240.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 238.21$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 38c | 191.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 171$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 124.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 30c | 119.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 37c | 105.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 104$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 97.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 84.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 32c | 83.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 59.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 31c | 53.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 62c | 52.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 50.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 32c | 47.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 42.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 35c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 41.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 38.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 68c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 38c | 32.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 66c | 30.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e23…4c30backed No | 53c | 28.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 27.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 25.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 63c | 22.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 63c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 17.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 73c | 16.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 64c | 15.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.