Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8740cf6e4e74d14b624f26018bd123a12e1eca41bcad1e5893817631a0d5e7a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 79c | 452.77$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.47 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 450$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 59c | 338.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 262.49$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 205.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 38c | 181.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 16c | 143.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 70c | 143$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 28c | 140$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 30c | 108.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 13c | 96.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 61c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…9e31backed No | 71c | 70.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 56.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 44c | 55.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 23c | 51.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 42.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 41.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 34.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 33.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 33.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 32.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 64c | 24.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed No | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 20.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 62c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 18.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 61c | 17.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.